WhaleCast and the Future of Whale Strike Forecasting
- Raleigh, NC
- May 18, 2026
- By: Taylor Shropshire, Head of Products and Marketing
Although whaling has decreased globally, accidental but fatal collisions, called vessel strikes, are on the rise for many species. There is a sad irony in the fact that through enormous conservation efforts whaling on vulnerable species has largely been eradicated only for those same animals to now be threatened by unintended consequences of growing maritime activity. Across the globe, the amount of vessel traffic that occurs each day is hard to comprehend. From shipping, to recreational boating, to cruises, to offshore construction. Whales are quite literally swimming in a sea of boats.
Why Fathom Science Is Working on This Problem
Fathom Science is located in Raleigh NC, on the US east coast where preventing vessel strikes on a species of whale, called the North Atlantic right whale, has received an enormous amount of attention in the past few years. If you do a quick google search, “most endangered species on earth”, the North Atlantic right Whale is at the top of the list with roughly 350 individuals. So you may be wondering what Fathom Science is doing about it?
At Fathom Science, we develop ocean forecasting software and marine analytics for maritime industries including shipping, ports, fisheries, and offshore energy. The company was founded by researchers from the oceanography department at NC State University, myself being one of them, and is built on more than a decade of ocean forecasting research supported by over $20 million in funding. As concerns around whale vessel strikes continued to grow, the problem naturally aligned with both our scientific background and our core forecasting technology. We began asking a simple question: if we can forecast changing ocean conditions, could we also help predict high risk areas for vessel strikes?
Why Static Protection Zones Are Not Enough For Whale Protection
Existing whale protection efforts have largely focused on management-based approaches. Mandated under the Endangered Species Act, U.S. agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have implemented management strategies including Seasonal Management Areas (SMAs) and Dynamic Management Areas (DMAs) to help protect North Atlantic right whales.
These measures are relatively straightforward: geographic zones are established where vessels are required or encouraged to reduce speed. While this certainly reduces risk, whales unfortunately don’t stay in boxes. As a result, vessel strikes continue to occur at an alarming rate. As a result, In 2024, NOAA proposed expanding its North Atlantic right whale vessel speed regulations to require all vessels 35 feet or longer to travel at 10 knots or less across much of the U.S. East Coast. The proposal was ultimately withdrawn amid concerns over economic impacts and operational feasibility. However, the need for a solution, a more targeted solution remains. Management strategies alone can’t solve the problem. New industry solutions are needed.
The Current State of Whale Detection Technology
A range of technological approaches have emerged over the past decade. Thermal imaging systems, such as WhaleSpotter, use infrared cameras to scan the water and alert vessel operators to nearby whales in real time. Acoustic technologies, including FarSounder, attempt to detect whales underwater using sound. Other groups, such as Whale Seeker, are applying artificial intelligence to aerial and satellite imagery to identify whale presence from above. Platforms like Whale Alert aggregate recent whale sightings and management information to improve mariner awareness.
All of these technologies provide value and represent important progress. However, these approaches still operate within a fundamentally reactive framework: a whale is detected, sighted, or reported only after it is already present. Many approaches also face challenges related to cost, operational coverage, deployment logistics, or adoption at scale across the broader maritime industry due to a lack of regulatory requirement. We don’t pretend to have a silver bullet to this complex issue, but predictive technology and integration with sensors, offers a promising path forward.
How WhaleCast Moves from Detection to Forecasting
As you may have noticed from the list above, take almost any maritime technology buzzword, put “Whale” in front of it, and chances are it already exists. So how does WhaleCast aim to be different? Two words, integration and forecasts. Forecasting shifts whale strike mitigation from a reactive approach to a proactive one, while integration helps bolster the efficacy and bring information directly into operational workflows where decisions are actually being made.
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Toward Safer Seas for Whales and Industry
At Fathom Science, we are committed to deploying predictive whale avoidance technologies responsibly. One important consideration is moral hazard, sometimes referred to as risk compensation, which is the idea that when people feel safer, they may unintentionally take greater risks. Some have argued that safety measures can sometimes influence human behavior by increasing confidence behind the wheel. I’ll leave it to others to evaluate this claim, however the underlying principle remains important: if predictive whale avoidance systems identify areas of lower whale strike risk, operators could intentionally or unintentionally reduce caution in those regions.
This is exactly why responsible deployment is central to WhaleCast. WhaleCast is not designed to declare areas “safe,” but rather to provide probabilistic risk guidance that supports more informed operational decisions while acknowledging uncertainty. Our commitment to responsible deployment is reflected in the upcoming WhaleCast 2.0 program, which is a strategic 12-month program to help define standards and best practices for operationalizing predictive whale avoidance. The program will be anchored by two collaborative leadership sessions focused on scientific validation and responsible deployment frameworks in partnership with SAS Institute, Duke University, and strategic sponsors.
The ocean will likely always remain an inherently unpredictable place. But for the first time, advances in ocean forecasting, artificial intelligence, and marine analytics are giving us the ability to move from reacting to problems toward anticipating them. WhaleCast is our attempt to help make maritime operations safer for both industry and marine life.